El Niño Drives Southeast Asia Drought and Central America Wildfire Risk, Forecasters Warn

A classic dry signal across the tropics

September 2026 forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization point to drier-than-usual conditions across large areas of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern South America — a pattern consistent with a strong Pacific El Niño suppressing convection in those regions.

BBC reporting on the WMO update notes that Indonesia is racing to contain wildfires that have burned more than 107,000 hectares nationwide this dry season, with some parts of Southeast Asia facing a longer fire season than usual. Reduced rainfall also threatens rice and palm production that depends on predictable monsoon timing.

In Central America, seasonal outlooks anticipate below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures through late 2026 across Cuba, Haiti, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Humanitarian analysts warn that the Dry Corridor — already prone to recurrent drought — is likely to be hit hardest.

Wildfire and air-quality hazards

Drought and heat together elevate wildfire risk, with consequences that extend beyond burned acreage. Smoke plumes from Indonesia and mainland Southeast Asia have historically degraded air quality in major cities and increased respiratory illness during strong El Niño years.

Central American fire seasons overlap with periods when agricultural burning is common, making attribution complex but the aggregate risk clear: less rain, drier fuels and hotter conditions extend the window in which ignitions spread. Emergency managers are pre-positioning firefighting assets in several countries, according to regional disaster coordination bodies.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said disruption from droughts is already visible and expected to increase as El Niño intensifies towards its late-2026 peak.

Food security and trade links

Southeast Asia and Central America are major exporters of agricultural commodities whose global prices react quickly to regional harvest shortfalls. El Niño droughts can tighten supplies of rice, coffee, sugar and palm oil, feeding through to import bills in countries far from the Pacific.

The World Food Programme notes that El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others, damaging crops, livestock and infrastructure. When supply falls, prices rise and food becomes less affordable — especially for smallholder farmers who rely on rainfall they are not receiving.

Early action versus a long event

Because WMO assigns nearly 100% likelihood to El Niño persisting through February 2027, drought-prone regions face not a single bad season but potentially consecutive failed or weakened harvest cycles. That duration is what makes anticipatory action — drought-resistant seed distribution, strategic grain reserves, cash transfers before prices spike — more valuable than reactive relief alone.

Governments from both regions told BBC reporters they are strengthening early warning systems and pre-positioning assistance, but the scale of the forecast El Niño has raised concern that existing buffers may be insufficient for the most vulnerable communities.